Interesting polls

This is a pretty good article, and it reflects what I've been seeing in the polls. Not a huge shift like many of us expected after the debate, but about 2 points to Trump's favor. There's a working theory that many Democrat voters are quite embarrassed that they allowed themselves to be fooled by this, and they might not be honestly answering the polls.

Hannity mentioned a poll last night that showed Trump way up over Biden, but I have not been able to find such poll.

IMO, it's going to be all about turnout at this point.

www.nbcnews.com

What the polls show 11 days after the Biden-Trump debate

Analysis: There hasn't been a fundamental change in the race (at least not yet). But the polls have moved 1 or 2 points against Biden since his debate struggles.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
Full page of post-debate 5-way polls now. Definitely a bump for Trump (hey, that rhymes), but not a big one. Probably 2-3 points. But, every polls on here shows Trump ahead.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com

More importantly, Trump's lead in the battleground states has increased a bit, some are just outside the margin of error now. Again, this is where the election will be won or lost, in these few states. The popular vote numbers are interesting but not terribly important.

www.realclearpolling.com

Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average

www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 
I bet an even larger percentage find it more embarrassing that no other candidates could touch them in the Primaries. It's easy to kick the two front runners from the bench.
 
I found this interesting, these polls were from July 12th in years past.

2020 - Biden +8.8

2016 - Clinton +4.5
 
Not a poll, just my opinion.

Yesterday's assassination attempt was a horrible tragedy; though Trump survived, at least one innocent man is dead. A husband and father. And it sounds like a couple more may be critically injured.

But tragedies sometimes bring change and shape future events. I suspect the political landscape changed dramatically yesterday, and not in favor of the Democrats. I suspect it was an awakening of sorts that demonstrated what the hate that has come from politics has done to us. At least I pray it was. IMO, all these years of hateful lies and rhetoric from the Democrats just backfired on them.

And let's be honest...that picture of Trump with blood on his face and his fist in the air is powerful! I'm sure it wasn't planned, just happened, but it's plastered all over social media right now. It's become the symbol for change.

It will take some time for the American people to process all this, emotions are running high now. Polls typically take a couple of weeks to reflect any real shifts. My guess is that we'll see a lot of things change. Reports are that the Biden campaign has suspended their ads. I have the feeling some of the more decent Democrats will be coming forward to denounce and possibly even leave their party. I wouldn't want to be a Democrat right now.
 
Not much in new polls out, probably won't be anything meaningful released to the public for awhile. Some reports indicate internal pooling is showing Joe is toast, but still time for crap to happen.

Betting odds have shifted considerably. Biden is back in second place, but only in the teens. Trump is in the upper 60s and 70s. So clearly, the betting industry think this election is all but over.

I expect it will be at least next weekend before we know the full effect of the assassination attempt and the GOP convention on people's choices. I am expecting a significant shift, though.
 
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