Interesting polls

Guard Dad said:
RCP has changed the Biden column on the no toss-up map to just read "Democrat", but they have not changed the numbers.

Reading through the individual state polls that were already underway, Harris typically does a bit worse against Trump than Biden.

I can't help but be a little skeptical that the Dems will stay with Kamala, they know she isn't popular. But, they have a problem if they go around her. Serves them right.
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I don't think their convention is open yet according to some of the talking heads. They seem to think that the Biden/Harris ticket the Dems voted for is still in force, that is, the delegates are sworn to vote for it on the first ballot, with or without Joe, making Harris the default nominee. The alternate scenario would have the DNC changing the rules before the first vote to have an open convention, and it was their belief that it has to be done at the convention with the delegates approval. That's a lot of rabbits to pull out of a lot of hats just to lose all of the campaign donations and the general election, hence the notion that the Dems have conceded the White House.

Personally, I would love to see an open convention... It would look like Wrestlemania without the ring ropes!!
 
Paxilpapa said:
I don't think their convention is open yet according to some of the talking heads. They seem to think that the Biden/Harris ticket the Dems voted for is still in force, that is, the delegates are sworn to vote for it on the first ballot, with or without Joe, making Harris the default nominee. The alternate scenario would have the DNC changing the rules before the first vote to have an open convention, and it was their belief that it has to be done at the convention with the delegates approval. That's a lot of rabbits to pull out of a lot of hats just to lose all of the campaign donations and the general election, hence the notion that the Dems have conceded the White House.

Personally, I would love to see an open convention... It would look like Wrestlemania without the ring ropes!!
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The delegates belonged to Biden and Biden alone. Harris' name was not on the primary ballot. Also if Biden had received the nomination at this convention, he would have had to officially announced his running mate. He was under no obligation to take her with him for a second term.
 
Boss 302 said:
It looks like all they did was delete Biden's name and substituted it with Harris'. None of that is worth a crap.
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No, if you look a few posts up, they have been running Trump vs Harris polls for awhile. They just put them together into a category now that Harris is the presumed nominee.

I agree that their importance is limited so early into the new ballgame, but not worthless.
 
Biden dropping out is not good for DJT. Biden has so many negatives he was in big trouble. The Ho will motivate many voters who were pretty much complacent about Biden. Leftists, black voters, women voters, gay voters, apologists, white guilt nut jobs may all get motivated to flood the polls. She is a horrible candidate but never underestimate the flock of really stupid people in this country.
 
Stonewall said:
Biden dropping out is not good for DJT. Biden has so many negatives he was in big trouble. The Ho will motivate many voters who were pretty much complacent about Biden. Leftists, black voters, women voters, gay voters, apologists, white guilt nut jobs may all get motivated to flood the polls. She is a horrible candidate but never underestimate the flock of really stupid people in this country.
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" Oh yes! I made a difference and help elect the first Black Asian President!! I'm so Proud!"

Cat GIF by Storyful
 
Now, 5-way polls using Harris as the Dem.

I wouldn't put huge stock in them just yet, but I do think they are valuable. So far, there's been little change in the polls between Biden as the nominee or Harris. The hard care Democrats are going to vote Democrat even if they run Satan himself. The Trump supporters are rock solid. I suspect there's only a small segment of independents up for grabs.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 

Trump leads VP Harris in hypothetical 2024 matchup after Biden's withdrawal from race


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Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Harris in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a new poll conducted after she rose as the likely-Democrat nominee.
CNN conducted a survey after President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and backed Harris for the nomination. The poll found that if the general election were today, Trump held a 3-point lead over Harris, 49% to 46%.
The results, released Wednesday, also reveal that Harris is performing better than Biden did in recent CNN hypothetical matchups against Trump. According to the poll, about 9 in 10 voters approve of Biden's decision to end his re-election bid.
About 76% of Democrat or Democrat-leaning voters said that Harris should be nominated as their party's 2024 nominee, just days after Biden dropped out of the race. Among the Democratic respondents, 75% say they are confident in her chances of beating Trump in November.
The CNN poll was conducted from July 22 to 23 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Posted by Aubrie Spady
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Guard Dad said:
They've moved Virginia back to blue on the no toss-up map. Not sure why, everything I see still indicates Trump is ahead there. But it still has Trump at 312 EVs.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States | RealClearPolling

2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
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Because when they ballot harvest, people with no ID and dead people vote, then she wins... no one can accuse them of cheating... she was winning all along...
 
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New polls trickling in, but I would give it some time for initial reactions to settle out before putting too much stock in them. Basically, Harris is polling pretty close to what Biden was, maybe a bit worse. All the polls except that that IPSOS pollster shows Trump in the lead. IMO, Harris' numbers will fall off a bit once the honeymoon is over.

I've seen some indication that young people and even black men are not terribly enthused with Harris. Time will tell.

Shifting gears a bit, here's a senate map projection.

www.realclearpolling.com

Battle for the Senate 2024 | Real Clear Polling

Battle for the Senate 2024 | Real Clear Polling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 
I'm sure some are hoping the convention will take another direction. If they do, it's the "people's representatives" that selected the new one over Harris, not the elite, letting them off the hook. They HAVE to support Harris before the vote, or it would be a major disaster.
 
A few new 5-way polls. I still think they are reading initial emotional responses and the numbers will change a bit once the new wears off. I suspect Kamala's numbers will drop a bit, but we'll see. There is GOBS of negative material to use against Harris, and much of it is videos of her saying this stuff.

The media is running a few articles claiming Harris is "surging". This is more BS from them, I'm seeing absolutely nothing in the polls to indicate a surge.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 
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