Interesting polls

Guard Dad

Guard Dad

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Staff member
First, this one. Biden trails Trump, Haley, and Scott in a theoretical match-up, but beats DeSantis.

thehill.com

Biden trails Trump, Haley, Scott in 2024 race: poll

President Biden is trailing former President Trump, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) in several hypothetical 2024 match-ups in a new survey from Harvard CAPS-Harris Po…
thehill.com thehill.com



This made me curious as to how the GOP candidates are doing, so I went to RCP for answers and was kinda surprised. Trump is gaining support, and DeSantis is kinda tanking. I know some of you like DeSantis, I do too. But guys, he's not doing well. And if he can't win, it doesn't matter how good he is.

 
At what date does it become less noisy?

Pretty much your only hope st this point is for something catastrophic to happen that will knock Trump out of the running.

Look...I still don't know which one I will vote for. Frankly, I want to vote for Haley or Scott, but the pragmatist in me likely won't allow me to cast my vote for someone who has almost no statistical chance of winning.

I'm just trying to bring it back to Earth.
 
The Sound Guy said:
Ding, ding, ding!! The Trump people will *always* answer the calls that say "xxxxx Polling", while the rest of us let it ring. That alone will throw them off completely.
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Incorrect. I’ve never accepted a call from any pollster even before Trump.
 
The Sound Guy said:
Ding, ding, ding!! The Trump people will *always* answer the calls that say "xxxxx Polling", while the rest of us let it ring. That alone will throw them off completely.
Click to expand...
While I think there is a little of that goes on, I don't think it's significant. I've even seem some studies on that very topic that concluded it made very little difference.

Now, I do believe some of the polls are weighted in demographics, and I think they are sometimes very clever to ask questions in a certain way that solicits a specific answer. But when you see a common trend between all the polls, there's usually some reality to them.
 
Guard Dad said:
The polls were right, Hillary won the popular vote.

Turnout changed the outcome.
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The polls that were off the mark in that election were taken in states. For instance, polls showed she would win Michigan and Wisconsin, but she lost them. This article gives several reason why those polls missed the mark,
www.pewresearch.org

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump's level of support.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
 
Boss 302 said:
The polls that were off the mark in that election were taken in states. For instance, polls showed she would win Michigan and Wisconsin, but she lost them. This article gives several reason why those polls missed the mark,
www.pewresearch.org

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump's level of support.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
Click to expand...
It wasn't the polls that were wrong, it was turnout. She failed to energize her base and many didn't vote. Specifically, the minority vote didn't come out for her.
 
olddance.gif
 
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