Interesting polls

RCP's No Toss Up Map now has Trump down to 293 Electoral Votes (still winning by 23 votes), but that's due to a rogue poll for Pennsylvania that shows Biden 10 points ahead, and that moved the state back into the blue. But that poll is clearly an outlier, so unless more polls come back with a similar result, I would discount it and still have Pennsylvania leaning toward Trump.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
 
The Sound Guy said:
Let me know what the polls say after the Newsome/Harris ticket is announced.
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We will be seriously screwed by Newsom. He loves power and is a TYRANT.

He is a snake oil salesmen and the women will vote for him, and I don't know why? He makes my skin crawl, why don't more see through him.
 
Latest state polls. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are both in play. I think Pennsylvania will go Trump; the current averages were skewed by an outlier poll that was BS. Wisconsin is currently on the fence, but I think leans slightly toward Trump. The other swing states are looking really good for Trump as of now.

I keep going back to these battleground states because they will decide the next election.

I really wish the GOP would do more to get California back. I know it will take some time and considerable effort, but it's ripe for the taking in the current economic and political climate. Without California, the Democrats wouldn't have much hope of winning the White House for a very long time.

www.realclearpolling.com

Presidential General Election (State) | Latest Polls | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 
I think the media is making news here lately. Last week, they were saying Biden was in the lead again, now they're saying the two are tied, or Trump is back in the lead.

The consensus of the polls never showed much change, so I think they're just making stuff up.

New poll shows Biden’s 2024 lead vanishing with Trump on trial

www.foxnews.com

New poll shows Biden’s 2024 lead vanishing with Trump on trial

A new poll has found President Biden's lead over former President Trump vanished despite Trump's ongoing criminal trial in a New York City court.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

 
In all of these Biden v. Trump polls, the difference between the two has been within the margin of error, meaning the race would be a dead heat if they were the only two candidates. Other polls have shown that half of Republican voters will not vote for Trump if he is convicted. One poll this past February showed that 52% of swing state voters would not vote for a convicted Trump.

Now, what happens if the SCOTUS rules Trump does not have immunity from any of the charges against him? If any of those he nominated to the high court vote against him, will he blast them and say the justice is a traitor to him or the worse excuse of a justice? He certainly won't say they were right in their decision. It will definitely show more of his true character as well.
 
Yes, but to further clarify my point above; the media seems to be trying to make news by writing article based on non-existent polls or outlier polls.

Most of the legitimate polls have been fairly flat for some time now, very little change.

But based on recent election history; if the Republican is just tied in the popular vote, he likely wins. Both Trump and Dubya won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

Again, the real story is in the battleground states. This is where the election will be decided.

 
Guard Dad said:
Yes, but to further clarify my point above; the media seems to be trying to make news by writing article based on non-existent polls or outlier polls.

Most of the legitimate polls have been fairly flat for some time now, very little change.

But based on recent election history; if the Republican is just tied in the popular vote, he likely wins. Both Trump and Dubya won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

Again, the real story is in the battleground states. This is where the election will be decided.

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The site you linked shows the difference between the two to be within the margin of error. However, the polls there are strictly between Biden and Trump, so it means little because when people go to the polls, they will be deciding between at least three candidates. Kennedy will be getting votes, so a Trump v. Biden poll means absolutely nothing.
 
Boss 302 said:
The site you linked shows the difference between the two to be within the margin of error. However, the polls there are strictly between Biden and Trump, so it means little because when people go to the polls, they will be deciding between at least three candidates. Kennedy will be getting votes, so a Trump v. Biden poll means absolutely nothing.
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In spite of recent articles claiming Kennedy is hurting Trump as much as Biden, polls clearly show that Kennedy is hurting Biden more. Kennedy is a Democrat, and many of the Democrats who are upset with Biden are supporting Bobby.

Yes, those particular battleground polls are just Biden vs Trump, but RCP also has national popular polls showing just Biden vs Trump, and also 5-way polls. In the 5-way polls, trump typically fares 2-4 points better. So if they had a 5-way poll in the battleground states, it would likely show Trump with even better leads.

It's hilarious how negative you are about Trump winning. I almost think you want Biden to win, just so you can say you told us so. This is the kind of stuff I don't get; the good of my country is far more important than my personal feelings toward any candidate.
 
Guard Dad said:
In spite of recent articles claiming Kennedy is hurting Trump as much as Biden, polls clearly show that Kennedy is hurting Biden more. Kennedy is a Democrat, and many of the Democrats who are upset with Biden are supporting Bobby.

Yes, those particular battleground polls are just Biden vs Trump, but RCP also has national popular polls showing just Biden vs Trump, and also 5-way polls. In the 5-way polls, trump typically fares 2-4 points better. So if they had a 5-way poll in the battleground states, it would likely show Trump with even better leads.

It's hilarious how negative you are about Trump winning. I almost think you want Biden to win, just so you can say you told us so. This is the kind of stuff I don't get; the good of my country is far more important than my personal feelings toward any candidate.
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I've said quite a few times now that we are screwed no matter who gets elected. I don't want a Democrat in the WH, and I definitely prefer someone other than Trump were the GOP candidate. I've said that many times as well.

You quite often post the polls from Five Thirty-Eight, so you must find them credible. Here's the latest poll and it includes Biden, Trump, and Kennedy. Trump's lead over Biden is only 0.4. Who lost the most ground in this poll, Biden or Trump?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 
Boss 302 said:
I've said quite a few times now that we are screwed no matter who gets elected. I don't want a Democrat in the WH, and I definitely prefer someone other than Trump were the GOP candidate. I've said that many times as well.

You quite often post the polls from Five Thirty-Eight, so you must find them credible. Here's the latest poll and it includes Biden, Trump, and Kennedy. Trump's lead over Biden is only 0.4. Who lost the most ground in this poll, Biden or Trump?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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I occasionally post from 538. It's an OK site, but not one of my faves. It's part of ABC news, so there's that.

I prefer RCP, them seem to be the least biased.

There are two more candidates in the race, West and Stein. Neither polling much (1-2 points each), but they are both pulling from the Dems.

Regardless...as I mentioned earlier, Trump would likely win, even if 2-3 points behind in the popular vote. Hillary beat Trump by 2.1% in the popular vote in the 2016 election. The Electoral Vote is what matters, and that will be decided by 7 states, all of which Trump has a nice lead in, except PA, which is neck and neck. But the current Electoral Map shows Trump winning by 29 EVs, even without PA.

Yes, things could change, and all these trials could factor into that. But for now, we can only wait and see what happens. Personally, I think most of them will either delay or fizzle. Most are on very weak legal grounds to begin with. I suspect the SCOTUS will rule at least somewhat in Trump's favor.
 
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