Brett Kavanaugh

One thing that the people who are so quick to believe Ford and other accusers are not considering is the "Boy who cried wolf" syndrome.

Every time a false allegation is made, that cheapens the genuine charges of sexual assault that need to be heard. I suspect the public spectacle factor of high profile cases like this could actually keep some women who actually were sexually assaulted from coming fourth.
 
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Something you are going to hear is that the incidence of falsely claimed sexual assault is widely acknowledged to be under 10%. This is technically true of the REPORTED incidence. However, the standard for reporting a false claim borders on a logical fallacy. In order for a police agency or a researcher to report an assault claim as false there must be clear and convincing evidence that the attack did not happen. That's right, you must be able to not only prove that there was no evidence that it did, but that there was good strong evidence that it did not. Even if the victim reports the wrong assailant, it is not considered a false report. You must prove a negative. That happens in 10% or less of reports. That shouldn't be surprising since most agencies will stop investigating when no positive evidence is found. Practically the only time they will seek negative evidence is if they intend to prosecute for an obvious fraud and false report.

How many reports to police really are false is of course somewhere between this 10% and the 10% of reported assaults that result in a conviction. That is of course a wide range. The truth is that nobody knows the exact number, but it would be reasonable to believe a reported victim until the evidence or the background of the accuser appears to be exceedingly sketchy. Not because of some chant to "believe women", but because we should give all potential crime victims a fair chance to tell their story and to seek justice where justice can be served. Keep in mind however that the standard to be officially called a liar are far stronger than to be not believed for good cause. There is valid reason to be skeptical of the numbers presented by both sides.

A lot of assaults are never reported, and that is also a fact. So I think the best evidence of whether or not any particular assault happened as the accuser describes is what is presented UNDER PENALTY OF PERJURY, what of that evidence seems clear, reasonable, and convincing, and what of that evidence can be corroborated. Our standard of jurisprudence is that the accuser must prove their case, not that the accused must prove their innocence. Keep that in mind.
 
IMO Ms Ford will have her day in court (her day in the sunshine = public attention)...
She will NOT prove what she claims... as her case will be picked apart by the lady from AZ...
The left will spin the details and facts to look like Ms Ford DOES have a case and the horrible right/GOP is doing evil things...
When in reality the evil came from the left!

In the end...
Judge Kavanaugh will not be charged with sex crimes...
And Judge Kavanaugh will become Justice Kavanaugh!

And as noted: RBG is next!

And I understand Clarence Thomas has said he will retire at an appropriate time to ensure his seat remains in the hands of a Constitutional conservative.
So there will be 4x Trump appointments!
We just need to make sure the GOP understands their job is to get them confirmed!!!
 
cptlo306 said:
More hmmm......

Click to expand...


A second Politico reporter, Elana Schor, added that the Judiciary also had a phone interview with a second man who also believed that he may have assaulted Ford in the summer of 1982.


Elana Schor

✔@eschor
https://twitter.com/eschor/status/1045141240205971456
Replying to @eschor

Senate Judiciary Rs release a Kavanaugh investigative summary that includes:

-an anonymous claim of rape fwded by Harris’ office
-two intvus & a written statement from a man “who believes he, not” Kav, assaulted Ford in 1982
-phone intvu w/a 2nd man who believes same as above
7:41 PM - Sep 26, 2018

The news comes after reports surfaced late on Wednesday about Julie Swetnick, the woman represented by hyper-partisan lawyer Michael Avenatti, who claims that she witnessed Kavanaugh participate in gang-rapes.


Swetnick sued her previous employer for sexual harassment using a law firm run by Debra Katz, the lawyer for Christine Blasey Ford, one of Kavanaugh's other accusers.

A separate report further damaged her credibility after it was revealed that her ex-boyfriend had filed a restraining order against her and noted that she's "not credible at all."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/36377/judiciary-talking-man-who-thinks-he-forced-ryan-saavedra
 
Hmmm...

I heard on Rush the other day...
That Trump decided to reverse the 'declassify order'... Rush thought he had a reason, however that is not the point.

IMO this charade is a cover for something else political...
And as soon as that something else is resolved...
The confirmation will be done.

What really annoys me...
Is how the public does not scream something like:
WE want verifiable facts and accountability!
 
Post by liberal friend on FB regarding g the two men coming forward to claim they were the assailants:

"Now the Nazis are falling on their swords."

Such tolerance and regard for that "justice" they are always talking about.
 
Far West said:
A second Politico reporter, Elana Schor, added that the Judiciary also had a phone interview with a second man who also believed that he may have assaulted Ford in the summer of 1982.


Elana Schor

✔@eschor
https://twitter.com/eschor/status/1045141240205971456
Replying to @eschor

Senate Judiciary Rs release a Kavanaugh investigative summary that includes:

-an anonymous claim of rape fwded by Harris’ office
-two intvus & a written statement from a man “who believes he, not” Kav, assaulted Ford in 1982
-phone intvu w/a 2nd man who believes same as above
7:41 PM - Sep 26, 2018

The news comes after reports surfaced late on Wednesday about Julie Swetnick, the woman represented by hyper-partisan lawyer Michael Avenatti, who claims that she witnessed Kavanaugh participate in gang-rapes.


Swetnick sued her previous employer for sexual harassment using a law firm run by Debra Katz, the lawyer for Christine Blasey Ford, one of Kavanaugh's other accusers.

A separate report further damaged her credibility after it was revealed that her ex-boyfriend had filed a restraining order against her and noted that she's "not credible at all."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/36377/judiciary-talking-man-who-thinks-he-forced-ryan-saavedra
Click to expand...
Late last night that boyfriend claims he can prove she is lying, but he said he was seeking legal representation before making a sworn statement.

Maybe yes, maybe no, but the plot thickens.

Quite honestly her story is so wild that if it were a script, porn directors would turn it down as not believable enough.
 
lotstodo said:
Post by liberal friend on FB regarding g the two men coming forward to claim they were the assailants:

"Now the Nazis are falling on their swords."

Such tolerance and regard for that "justice" they are always talking about.
Click to expand...
Their tolerance only extends to the causes they support.

The hate from the left is the worst I've ever seen in politics.
 
I saw some of her testimony and she wasn't a bad witness. She may even believe what she says. But the long term memory of someone who was drunk during an incident 35 years ago would be discredited out of hand in a court proceeding. This is why we have statutes of limitation.

What we are weighing is the coached testimony of a drunk teenager 35 years later with the possibly drunk testimony of as many as 5 or 6 teenagers who said it never happened. With no physical evidence, it would be insanity to ruined someone's life here.
 
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