Third party candidates hardly ever run for lower office to establish a 3rd party. They always want to go for the GOLD right off the bat. If there were already Independent or libertarian or "No Labels" (stupidest group name I've ever heard by the way) senators, congressmen or even governors, they may have a chance. Kennedy won't win and I don't think he's so stupid not to realize it. Now if it were Biden (The Moth), I would think differently.