Interesting polls

6 days and counting…still no significant October surprise.
 
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Trump lead in the RCP 2-way average is up to 0.5%.

Their no toss-up map has Trump's EV count down to 287 because of some garbage polls that show Harris leading in two battleground states. I don't expect this will hold.
 
Well I guess it's hard to argue with the polls now (but I know someone who will):

"Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris said Thursday that she’s “running like the underdog” against Republican Donald Trump while asserting she’s going to win despite “what the polls say.”"

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www.newsmax.com
 
Not much worth mentioning going on in the polls. RCP still has Trump at "only" 287 EVs, because of some outlier polls that tilted their averages on Michigan and Wisconsin back blue. But most of the prognosticators think he'll win both.

Newsweek is running stories claiming it's all shifting back to Harris, but there's really no credible support for that.
 
Polls have tightened some, if you believe the polls. I think part of what Nate Silver recently said is correct; that certain pollsters are lying to make the public think the race is closer than it really is.

No toss-up maps are still showing a Trump victory, though not by as large a margin as they were a couple of weeks ago. Again, certain polls appear to be skewing the numbers. The poll averages now show two of the swing states going for Harris, though Atlas Intel (one of the most accurate pollsters) show all seven going Trump.

Some think Virginia and Minnesota are in play, but I'm not counting on those.

Word from both camps is that internal polling still looks very bad for Harris. The tone of the media would seem to support this; they are clearly expecting Harris to lose.

We'll know for sure when all this is over. I just hope it's decided quickly and decisively.
 
Guard Dad said:
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Of the polls over the same period, you're cherry picking the polls showing Trump has the lead.

Here's Michigan. Of the five polls for the same period of time, two show a tie, two have Harris ahead, and one has Trump a head. The MOE in each poll with a lead have both candidates within the MOE. Whoever has the best voter turnout will win this state.
RCP Average10/17 - 11/2——48.447.6Harris+0.8
NY Times/Siena10/29 - 11/2998 LV—4747Tie
InsiderAdvantage11/1 - 11/2800 LV3.74747Tie
MNS/Mitchell Research10/29 - 11/2585 LV4.05048Harris+2
Atlas Intel11/1 - 11/21198 LV3.04850Trump+2
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 11/1908 LV3.04948Harris+1

The bottom line is this, anyone who calls this race for either candidate now is foolish because the polls show this race is too close to call. It's going to come down to who had the strongest voter turnout and it's going to finish being a tight race in the number of votes each gets in the swing states, especially the blue wall.
 
Boss 302 said:
Of the polls over the same period, you're cherry picking the polls showing Trump has the lead.

Here's Michigan. Of the five polls for the same period of time, two show a tie, two have Harris ahead, and one has Trump a head. The MOE in each poll with a lead have both candidates within the MOE. Whoever has the best voter turnout will win this state.
RCP Average10/17 - 11/2——48.447.6Harris+0.8
NY Times/Siena10/29 - 11/2998 LV—4747Tie
InsiderAdvantage11/1 - 11/2800 LV3.74747Tie
MNS/Mitchell Research10/29 - 11/2585 LV4.05048Harris+2
Atlas Intel11/1 - 11/21198 LV3.04850Trump+2
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 11/1908 LV3.04948Harris+1

The bottom line is this, anyone who calls this race for either candidate now is foolish because the polls show this race is too close to call. It's going to come down to who had the strongest voter turnout and it's going to finish being a tight race in the number of votes each gets in the swing states, especially the blue wall.
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Yes, I'm paying attention to the polls that have proven to be accurate and trustworthy. Do you trust the New York Times? Their other pollster is IPSOS, they are the laughing stock of the polling industry. Who the hell is Mitchel Research?

That's the point I've been making, and Nate Silver (you loved him when he said Kamala was gonna win) made; that several polls are flat out lying to make the race look close.

I realize you are rooting for a Trump loss, but that's not a reason to use poor judgement in deciding which pollsters to trust. You could have simply posted other polls without the editorial if your mission was to give them all equal time.
 
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Guard Dad said:
Yes, I'm paying attention to the polls that have proven to be accurate and trustworthy. Do you trust the New York Times? Their other pollster is IPSOS, they are the laughing stock of the polling industry. Who the hell is Mitchel Research?

That's the point I've been making, and Nate Silver (you loved him when he said Kamala was gonna win) made; that several polls are flat out lying to make the race look close.

I realize you are rooting for a Trump loss, but that's not a reason to use poor judgement in deciding which pollsters to trust. You could have simply posted other polls without the editorial if your mission was to give them all equal time.
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Once again, it doesn't matter to me who wins because we're screwed either way.

The polls I looked at were provided by the links of the poll you used. Obviously RCP views those polls as being credible enough to use in their analysis. Prior to this election, I had never heard of Atlas Intel.
 
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