Current Ga Case Count

The Sound Guy · Apr 9, 2020

GA deaths over 400. Paulding has it's second death. If you are older and have secondary issues.. this thing seem deadly.

73	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
74	MALE	PAULDING	Yes

Thurs 4/9 Evening - Statewide Cases: 10885 Ga Hospitalized: 2298 Ga Deaths: 412
Paulding: 69 Cases 2 Deaths
41085 tests given - 10885 Positive = 26.3% Positive

Looking at the chart, I see a good thing, we are not spiraling upward into heath system crash. It will take longer to reach herd immunity levels, but will save lives.

deewee · Apr 10, 2020

Total Georgia cases up by 598 since last night.

lotstodo · Apr 10, 2020

J-man said:
You knew I'd bite, hook line and sinker.

This is exactly why I question why our numbers are so out of whack when compared to the rest of the world. As you said, a death is a death. Death knows no boundary, border, hemisphere line, race, or gender. Should numbers for other countries be higher, should ours be lower, or are they all accurate or inaccurate? If not accurate then why report them at all, unless of course to intentionally cause a panic with an end game in mind. Also as you said, nobody is intentionally fudging numbers...so China's numbers are correct too? Or are we the only country reporting correctly?

Again, please don't take this as a personal attack as that's not what I intend.

View attachment 8422

No, I don't think China's reporting since the first of March has been even close. Viruses don't just stop, in fact the ramp down is slower than the ramp up. What's curious about that to me is that once they admitted it was out of Wuhan, they really had little incentive to lie.

Then there is how you define "correctly". The only number we can rely on is deaths per thousand population for any kind of comparison between countries. By that measure Sweden is the worst and we are second worst. I doubt we will be able to say why until the post mortem on the response and the breakdown of who died and where they died. Some of it, like Albany, may just be dumb luck, or lack of it.

The Sound Guy · Apr 11, 2020

With the crappy testing rate, its going to be hard to tell for sure, but so far, last Tuesday is the peak.

Fri 4/10 Evening - Statewide Cases: 11859 Ga Hospitalized: 2454 Ga Deaths: 425
Paulding: 74 Cases 2 Deaths
46147 tests given - 11859 Positive = 25.7% Positive

The Sound Guy · Apr 11, 2020

Figuring that most tests are still done to people who are already pretty sick, more than 3/4 of those tested are sick with something other than Covid 19. This says to me the Flu or colds are still running rampant.

Bad news is that the Shelter at home is beginning to break down, at least for small groups with the people we know, so I suspect it's that way in a lot of places.

Still no "Recovered" numbers, which makes me suspicious of the Hospitalized number which is up to 10% of available beds.

Still just 1/10th of 1% of Ga's population has been tested. (0.115%)

By the way, telemarketing of Burial schemes is a real crap thing to do... I just got a recorded call on it.

Sat 4/11 Evening - Statewide Cases: 12261 Ga Hospitalized: 2491 Ga Deaths: 432
Paulding: 79 Cases 2 Deaths
48434 tests given - 12261 Positive = 23.7% Positive

The Sound Guy · Apr 13, 2020

Still not peaking. Looking like the distancing is working. Monday/Tues should tell the tale when the weekend reports are caught up.

Sun 4/12 Evening - Statewide Cases: 12550
Ga Hospitalized: 2518 Ga Deaths: 442
Paulding: 84 Cases 2 Deaths
54453 tests given - 12550 Positive = 23.0% Positive

Far West · Apr 13, 2020

Covid-19 fatalities adjusted for population

The Sound Guy · Apr 13, 2020

The post above made me curious about different ways to look at the Georgia data.

For Instance, the cases and Deaths / 10,000 population.

Looking at it that way, Randolph is the hardest hit county for cases, while Terrel is the hardest hit with deaths.

As well, 3.5% of GA cases and 1% of the deaths are from out of state people.

Interesting stuff.

OVID-19 Confirmed Cases By County:	No. Cases	No. Deaths	Population	Cases/ 10,000	Deaths/ 10,000
Randolph	111	5	7087	156.6	7.1
Dougherty	1178	72	91049	129.4	7.9
Terrell	109	10	8859	123.0	11.3
Early	125	6	10348	120.8	5.8
Lee	244	15	29348	83.1	5.1
Sumter	239	9	30352	78.7	3.0
Calhoun	45	2	6428	70.0	3.1
Mitchell	138	14	22432	61.5	6.2
Clay	16	1	3001	53.3	3.3
Turner	37	0	7962	46.5	0.0
Baker	14	2	3189	43.9	6.3
Worth	87	4	20656	42.1	1.9
Dooly	44	2	13905	31.6	1.4
Crisp	69	0	22846	30.2	0.0
Wilcox	24	0	8846	27.1	0.0
Pierce	45	2	19164	23.5	1.0
Schley	12	1	5211	23.0	1.9
Upson	56	1	26216	21.4	0.4
Bartow	213	16	103620	20.6	1.5
Johnson	19	1	9730	19.5	1.0
Colquitt	87	5	45606	19.1	1.1
Miller	11	0	5836	18.8	0.0
Carroll	210	5	116022	18.1	0.4
Seminole	15	0	8437	17.8	0.0
Thomas	77	3	44730	17.2	0.7
Macon	23	0	13480	17.1	0.0
Greene	26	1	16976	15.3	0.6
Ware	54	4	35599	15.2	1.1
Fulton	1495	50	1021902	14.6	0.5
Tift	59	1	40510	14.6	0.2
Hall	282	0	195961	14.4	0.0
Talbot	9	1	6378	14.1	1.6
Coffee	58	3	42961	13.5	0.7
Clayton	372	11	278666	13.3	0.4
Quitman	3	0	2276	13.2	0.0
Warren	7	0	5346	13.1	0.0
Bacon	14	0	11228	12.5	0.0
Burke	28	1	22550	12.4	0.4
Butts	29	0	23750	12.2	0.0
Brooks	19	1	15622	12.2	0.6
Wilkinson	11	1	9078	12.1	1.1
Dekalb	893	14	743187	12.0	0.2
Henry	263	3	221307	11.9	0.1
Irwin	11	0	9268	11.9	0.0
Marion	10	0	8484	11.8	0.0
Baldwin	53	2	45286	11.7	0.4
Stewart	7	0	6042	11.6	0.0
Lincoln	9	0	7799	11.5	0.0
Webster	3	0	2613	11.5	0.0
Spalding	73	4	64719	11.3	0.6
Douglas	159	5	141840	11.2	0.4
Floyd	108	5	96824	11.2	0.5
Rockdale	97	2	89011	10.9	0.2
Dawson	26	2	23861	10.9	0.8
Meriwether	23	0	21113	10.9	0.0
Decatur	29	0	26833	10.8	0.0
Washington	22	0	20461	10.8	0.0
Mcduffie	23	2	21498	10.7	0.9
Oconee	38	0	37017	10.3	0.0
Jenkins	9	1	8827	10.2	1.1
Cobb	728	35	745057	9.8	0.5

The Sound Guy · Apr 13, 2020

Up to 100 Cases in Paulding. Two more fatalities.

64	FEMALE	PAULDING	Yes
85	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
74	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
73	MALE	PAULDING	Yes

Mon 4/13 Evening - Statewide Cases: 13621 Ga Hospitalized: 2702 Ga Deaths: 480
Paulding: 90 Cases 4 Deaths
57038 tests given - 13621 Positive = 23.9% Positive

Spike in the daily rate as well. Cases reference to the left, deaths to the right.

The Sound Guy · Apr 14, 2020

Over 500 dead credited to Covid-19

Tues 4/14 Evening - Statewide Cases: 14587 Ga Hospitalized: 2858 Ga Deaths: 524
Paulding: 115 Cases 4 Deaths
61795 tests given - 14578 Positive = 23.6% Positive

Lack of testing and uncertainty in what deaths are Covid-19 are making the graph a mess.

Cases reference to the left, deaths to the right.

The Sound Guy · Apr 15, 2020

Paulding had another death: All have been elderly and had complications. (whatever that means)

64	FEMALE	PAULDING	Yes
87	FEMALE	PAULDING	Yes
85	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
73	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
74	MALE	PAULDING	Yes

Wed 4/15 Evening - Statewide Cases: 15260 Ga Hospitalized: 3006 Ga Deaths: 576
Paulding: 118 Cases 5 Deaths
64099 tests given - 15260 Positive = 23.8% Positive

I find it awful suspicious that the death rate is following the case rate so closely, day by day.

Something is funny here...

The Sound Guy · Apr 17, 2020

Thurs 4/16 Evening - Statewide Cases: 16368 Ga Hospitalized: 3260 Ga Deaths: 617
Paulding: 123 Cases 5 Deaths
67939 tests given - 16386 Positive = 24.1% Positive

Not looking like a peak as much as Status Quo due to the social distancing.

Only 0.15% of Ga population has been tested. Until this number is higher, the stats are pretty worthless.

lotstodo · Apr 17, 2020

The Sound Guy said:
Wed 4/16 Evening - Statewide Cases: 16368 Ga Hospitalized: 3260 Ga Deaths: 617
Paulding: 123 Cases 5 Deaths
67939 tests given - 16386 Positive = 24.1% Positive

Not looking like a peak as much as Status Quo due to the social distancing.

Only 0.15% of Ga population has been tested. Until this number is higher, the stats are pretty worthless.

View attachment 8471

The government needs to get out of the testing business and let the market take this over. This was the biggest screw up of the entire fiasco.

The Sound Guy · Apr 17, 2020

lotstodo said:
The government needs to get out of the testing business and let the market take this over. This was the biggest screw up of the entire fiasco.

The vast majority of the testing being done here is commercial. GA Public Health has only managed to test 4616 people as of this morning. Commercial testing is at 67068.

How valid some of the commercial tests are is a good question. I've read several stories of the commercial tests coming back with bogus results. (both false positive and false negative)

lotstodo · Apr 17, 2020

The Sound Guy said:
The vast majority of the testing being done here is commercial. GA Public Health has only managed to test 4616 people as of this morning. Commercial testing is at 67068.

How valid some of the commercial tests are is a good question. I've read several stories of the commercial tests coming back with bogus results. (both false positive and false negative)

I'm sure there is some false results if for no other reason than how the tests must be given. But the NYT piece that is so widely quoted was a perfect example of why reporters should leave scientific reporting to scientists.

They took the false negative results of three methods of giving the German test and added them together to come up with a 30% false negative result. The purpose of the experiment was to determine the best sample site, not to determine the validity of the test. There were 500 people in the sample who had previously tested positive. Each had their test material taken from three sources, the back of the nasal cavity, the inside of the mouth, and the back of the throat (the back of the throat was thought to possibility be a good source for sputum). I think you can begin to see where I am going here. They added up the negative results to come up with 30% false negative failure rate.

The mouth was determined to be a poor source for viral material. The sputum was the best source, however the testers were unable to obtain sputum in fully half of those tested. The back of the nose was the best. So the NYT added up three numbers two of which gave false negatives since viral material was difficult to obtain from those sites. That was the first problem here. Good procedure + Bad procedure + Bad procedure = scary number

The second problem? ALL OF THE TEST SUBJECTS HAD BEEN GIVEN ANTI VIRAL DRUGS DAYS PRIOR TO THE TEST. This had no real impact on the results of the comparative test, which was the purpose, since each subject was tested from all three locations and their results were only compared to themselves. However, one might assume that after being given drugs to get rid of the virus that the virus might be either gone or far more difficult to detect days afterward. The NYT reported none of this, just that there was a 30% failure rate.

The Sound Guy · Apr 17, 2020

Fri 4/17 Evening - Statewide Cases: 17432 Ga Hospitalized: 3395 Ga Deaths: 668
Paulding: 132 Cases 5 Deaths
67939 tests given - 16386 Positive = 24.1% Positive

In a trend I'm not fond of... if you take away the two spikes in case counts as just flukes of a bad testing program, then the rest of the graph looks like a slow climb... that is no where near the peak of what it will be considering that only 0.16% of the state's population has been tested.

So here is a graph of the 5 day average for each day (the sum of the last 5 days / 5)

The Sound Guy · Apr 18, 2020

Another Paulding Death. RIP.

87	FEMALE	PAULDING	Yes
85	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
64	FEMALE	PAULDING	Yes
73	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
71	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
74	MALE	PAULDING	Yes

Sat 4/18 Evening - Statewide Cases: 17841 Ga Hospitalized: 3447Ga Deaths: 677
Paulding: 133 Cases 6 Deaths
74208 tests given - 17841 Positive = 24.0% Positive

The Sound Guy · Apr 19, 2020

Yet Another Paulding Death. Did this thing get into one of the retirement homes in county?

Hospitalized actually went down. Since we're not sure what that number means, it's hard to tell how much good news it is, but having that go down has to be some kind of good news.

With the new testing stations opening up in the state that all you need is symptoms to be tested, I expect the test numbers to sky rocket.

Sun 4/19 Evening - Statewide Cases: 18157 Ga Hospitalized: 3426 Ga Deaths: 681
Paulding: 135 Cases 7 Deaths
79933 tests given - 18157 Positive = 22.7% Positive

64	FEMALE	PAULDING	Yes
85	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
71	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
73	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
74	MALE	PAULDING	Yes
87	FEMALE	PAULDING	Yes
73	FEMALE	PAULDING	Unk

Far West · Apr 20, 2020

The Sound Guy said:
Yet Another Paulding Death. Did this thing get into one of the retirement homes in county?

Hospitalized actually went down. Since we're not sure what that number means, it's hard to tell how much good news it is, but having that go down has to be some kind of good news.

With the new testing stations opening up in the state that all you need is symptoms to be tested, I expect the test numbers to sky rocket.

Sun 4/19 Evening - Statewide Cases: 18157 Ga Hospitalized: 3426 Ga Deaths: 681
Paulding: 135 Cases 7 Deaths
79933 tests given - 18157 Positive = 22.7% Positive

64
FEMALE PAULDING Yes
85
MALE PAULDING Yes
71
MALE PAULDING Yes
73
MALE PAULDING Yes
74
MALE PAULDING Yes
87
FEMALE PAULDING Yes
73
FEMALE PAULDING Unk

Again, if you look at age for Paulding deaths. We should protect our elderly. 100% quarantine them. No leaving their home. Leave groceries on their porch, not have them out and about, but everyone else get back to work and life with the new social distancing.

lotstodo · Apr 20, 2020

Far West said:
Again, if you look at age for Paulding deaths. We should protect our elderly. 100% quarantine them. No leaving their home. Leave groceries on their porch, not have them out and about, but everyone else get back to work and life with the new social distancing.

That was Sweden's plan, and they are being stymied by the fact that asymptomatic workers are spreading the virus through nursing homes. Their elderly death rate is one of the worst in thenworld. But we aren't doing so well there right now either. Unless we take social distancing and wearing masks seriously, which we won't, I don't see a good end here or anywhere.

Current Ga Case Count

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aka "The Jackal"

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aka "The Jackal"

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