The Redskins say Romeny will win

Well, at least Romney will win the popular vote then. Does it mean more if they were beaten by one of the worst teams in the NFL?
 
Wednesday morning we will be celebrating.

I believe we are about to see a solid Romney victory.
 
Part of me REALLY wants to believe that it's going to be a shocker, that it will be a Romney landslide.

However (as I've already posted), I remain cautiously optimistic. I still have voters I don't trust.
 
I do agree that if you look at event turn out, Romney is WAY ahead. I do think a lot of the media is going to be SHOCKED. :seesaw
 
One of the other factors that a lot are pointing to ... apparently many of the polls are going on numbers that would indicate and increase in democratic voter turnout over 2008. That's just not realistic. Democrats, as a whole, are just not anywhere near as motivate, excited, etc. as they were in '08 so to assume a higher turnout is not being realistic.

We can hope there's something to this.
 
There is a blog by a statistician that puts the likelihood that the polls are skewed enough in Obama's favor to miss a Romney win at about 30%. But his assumption is that the "average" of 23 polls is correct. This was not the case in 2008 where 17 of the polls overstated the Obama advantage and only 3 overstated Romney's tally, and he admits that he hasn't studied the "Homer" effect directly in each poll. He based his number on his own assumptions. There is absolutely no poll that doesn't make some assumption about turnout and sample population.

I still do believe that the only way Romney is going to win is if the polls are wrong, and they will have to be wrong by about 2%. That would be a huge miss, but we can hope. It really does point out that this miss is extremely important in the toss-up states far more than the rest of the country. Lets hope that Ohio, Florida, and the rest of the close calls have been fooling them all along and Republicans swamp the polling places.
 
lotstodo said:
There is a blog by a statistician that puts the likelihood that the polls are skewed enough in Obama's favor to miss a Romney win at about 30%. But his assumption is that the "average" of 23 polls is correct. This was not the case in 2008 where 17 of the polls overstated the Obama advantage and only 3 overstated Romney's tally, and he admits that he hasn't studied the "Homer" effect directly in each poll. He based his number on his own assumptions. There is absolutely no poll that doesn't make some assumption about turnout and sample population.

I still do believe that the only way Romney is going to win is if the polls are wrong, and they will have to be wrong by about 2%. That would be a huge miss, but we can hope. It really does point out that this miss is extremely important in the toss-up states far more than the rest of the country. Lets hope that Ohio, Florida, and the rest of the close calls have been fooling them all along and Republicans swamp the polling places.
Click to expand...

The latest CNN poll shows the race tied at 49%, but there was an oversampling of Democrats of 11%.

The latest Pew poll shows Obama leading 48% to 45%, but an oversampling of Democrats of 6%.

All the other national polls show the race tied.
 
Foxmeister said:
lotstodo said:
There is a blog by a statistician that puts the likelihood that the polls are skewed enough in Obama's favor to miss a Romney win at about 30%. But his assumption is that the "average" of 23 polls is correct. This was not the case in 2008 where 17 of the polls overstated the Obama advantage and only 3 overstated Romney's tally, and he admits that he hasn't studied the "Homer" effect directly in each poll. He based his number on his own assumptions. There is absolutely no poll that doesn't make some assumption about turnout and sample population.

I still do believe that the only way Romney is going to win is if the polls are wrong, and they will have to be wrong by about 2%. That would be a huge miss, but we can hope. It really does point out that this miss is extremely important in the toss-up states far more than the rest of the country. Lets hope that Ohio, Florida, and the rest of the close calls have been fooling them all along and Republicans swamp the polling places.
Click to expand...

The latest CNN poll shows the race tied at 49%, but there was an oversampling of Democrats of 11%.

The latest Pew poll shows Obama leading 48% to 45%, but an oversampling of Democrats of 6%.

All the other national polls show the race tied.
Click to expand...
A 6% oversampling is not out of the realm of reality. Rasmussen oversamples Dems by 4.8%. 2008 saw a 7% plus for Dems.
 
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