National polls don't mean anything

Boss 302

Boss 302

Pursuit Driver
The national polls for a presidential race mean absolutely nothing and the 2016 race proved that, as HRC had a huge lead in those polls and lost. The reason they don't mean anything and why we shouldn't pay attention to them is because the president isn't elected by a popular vote; it's the electoral college that matters. In all but two states (Maine and Nebraska) electoral votes are "winner takes all," where the winner takes all by the popular vote in those states.

The reason the Biden campaign and the DNC like to point out so much Biden leads nationally is; they hope if they keep pointing that out, it will influence the polling in the swing states their way. That strategy isn't working for them at all. I see several reasons why Trump is gaining in the polling in swing states and others. People in states where they are still locked down, see those in other states prospering and enjoying more normal activities.

I have family and a lot of friends in Michigan where the governor has taken a more dictatorial attitude in dealing with Covid and the people hate it. She's still favoring well in Detroit, Lansing, and Grand Rapids; but the rest of the state she's not. During the 2016 presidential election, there were 7.5 million registered voters, but only 4.8 million voted. How Trump beat HRC was by taking the majority of votes outside of Detroit, Lansing and Grand Rapids. People in Michigan vote with their wallet; meaning the economy is very important to them. It's why Trump did so well outside the three metro areas in Michigan. My family and friends see Biden bad for the economy. They don't blame Trump at all about the spread of the virus; they blame China. Those I've been talking to their believe if Biden were elected, he would shut the economy down to "stop" the virus. They know a shutdown will do noting more than wreck the economy. Everyone of my family members and friends believe the Dems have only made the rioting in major cities worse by taking no action to stop them. My brother who is a liberal, thinks the same way.

I've been called twice in the past month to participate in a poll. I hung up each time because I don't give a damn about polls because most questions are asked to get a predetermined result by those who created the poll. I know many of my conservative friends have also hung up on pollsters.

I think a lot of people will determine who to vote for based upon economy/Covid (I see both interlinked now), safety, and illegal immigration.
 
They are still helpful, if for nothing else to show trends and take a "pulse" of the people.

But I agree that end numbers are pretty useless right now. For one reason, Trump supporters tend to not participate in the polls. I would guess that Trump has a good 3-4% or more of support that does not reflect in the pools.

But the biggest factor will be turnout, turnout will mean EVERYTHING! Trump has a big advantage over Biden there. Most Biden voters are not excited, not motivated. The ONLY motivational factor the Democrats have is the hate for Trump, but that will only go so far. Not all Democrats hate Trump, many just vote Democrat because they vote Democrat. Trump supporters are extremely motivated and they will be hell bent to go to the polls.

The COVID mess will likely help Trump as far as voting in person. Trump voters aren't nearly as terrified of the 'Rona as the koolaid drinking Democrats are, so Trump's supporters will not hesitate to go to the polls. Many Democrats are too skeeered to vote in person because they might catch the dreaded Woohan.

The big unknown will be main-in voting, and which all states will do it. There is tremendous potential for fraud there, and given their level of desperation, Democrats will not hesitate to cheat. Also, many people who are not motivated enough to go to the polls might be willing to vote by mail, and most of those will go to Biden.

So, It's going to be another crazy election, and likely one where the clear winner is not known on election night unless Trump just runs away with it, which I do think is in the realm of possibility.

Perhaps a better indicator right now is the betting odds. The latest odds have changed considerably and most are now showing Trump as the winner. They also show the odds of the GOP keeping the senate and regaining the house as being much better. These are people who make t heir living predicting winners and losers, and they are generally good at what they do.

Lastly, Michael Moore has come out again in the last couple of days and warned the Democrats that Trump is going to outsmart them again. He did the same thing lat time, and was right. He's an a-hole, but not stupid.
 
Boss 302 said:
I've been called twice in the past month to participate in a poll. I hung up each time because I don't give a damn about polls because most questions are asked to get a predetermined result by those who created the poll. I know many of my conservative friends have also hung up on pollsters.
Click to expand...

As I said in the other thread, many conservative people just want to be left alone. They don't want to tell other people how to live their lives. They don't want to tell them how to spend their money. They are actually, you know, working to accomplish something, so don't have time to play 20 questions with some idiot on the phone.

I think the 4% of people missed number is low.

Same with the stupid polls the local republican party keeps sending. As long as the poll ends with the question, "Wouldn't you like to send $XXXX to us to continue the fight for you?" I'll keep filing them in the strong plastic container outside. I doubt they read the poll portion.
 
Polls only matter in swing states. The 3 million excess votes that Biden will get in California don't mean a thing in Florida. That's why it's raining PAC money in Texas, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, and the Carolinas.
 
The left is posting this video to show Trump is trying to kill people... instead, as I was watching it, I thought it shows the excitement to be involved with the Re-Election of Trump.



As biden sits in a room almost by himself .. the optics sure make you think there is more traction for Trump.



Remember libs are not afraid to be out en-mass ... they just don't do so for Joe and the Ho...

They are in hysteria on twitter that Trump will kill people having rallies, and yet say nothing about George Floyd Protests as pictured below:

1600040299261.png
 
I still think that Biden wins, and there will be legal wrangling like we've never seen before.

There's just so many people that believe the leftist smack.

To be fair, it's a lot easier to sell 'free stuff' & 'you're the victim' than to persuade folks to take complete responsibility for their lives.
 
A guy attempts to assassinate two sheriff deputies in LA County, and soon afterwards Biden uses it to push gun control. Gun and ammo sales have increased significantly over the past several months because of the pandemic and "peaceful" protests. The FBI conducted 3.6 million gun purchase background checks in July. That's a lot of voters there. About 2 million guns were purchased in March. In the first 6 months of this year, approximately 19 million guns have been sold in this country. The Second Amendment is much more valuable to voters now that we have these riots and the pandemic. If Biden keeps pushing on gun control, he'll just be giving Trump more ammunition.
 
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