What else will happen next week?

[lotstodo]

Ordinarily, the stock and bond markets would have already made their election bets by now, in facts weeks before now. Not so this year. The election is so close, and the potential for disaster or redemption so great, that this year, they will wait and see. Today stocks went down 1% on the jobs report, the payroll report, and some say final bets on the Presidency. Monday will be the last day for institutional pullout, and I look for the market to drop maybe another 2% or so Monday as profit takers hedge their bets. This if there is no bad news for Romney this weekend. I've personally decided to stand pat at least into post election next week, a position I may live to regret, as I'm still about 35% invested in mostly dividend paying equities.

There is one thing that worries Wall Street more than it does me, and that is the so called "fiscal cliff". You see, much of Wall Street is supported by government spending, and their short term fear of this loss of spending is greater than their long term fear of the oppressive debt. We all know that Wall Street rarely looks further ahead than next quarter, often no further than next week. It is plain for all to see that if Obama wins, the fiscal cliff looms great. Obama is not a deal maker, he is power broker, and he will likely present Congress, particularly the House, with a package that will be a complete non-starter of tax increases with only government math spending cuts. The consensus is that if Romney wins, there is a better chance of coming to some compromise, and they fear the next two months if Obama wins. So gird your loins, it could be a bumpy ride.

 

[naturegirl]

Ordinarily, the stock and bond markets would have already made their election bets by now, in facts weeks before now. Not so this year. The election is so close, and the potential for disaster or redemption so great, that this year, they will wait and see. Today stocks went down 1% on the jobs report, the payroll report, and some say final bets on the Presidency. Monday will be the last day for institutional pullout, and I look for the market to drop maybe another 2% or so Monday as profit takers hedge their bets. This if there is no bad news for Romney this weekend. I've personally decided to stand pat at least into post election next week, a position I may live to regret, as I'm still about 35% invested in mostly dividend paying equities.

There is one thing that worries Wall Street more than it does me, and that is the so called "fiscal cliff". You see, much of Wall Street is supported by government spending, and their short term fear of this loss of spending is greater than their long term fear of the oppressive debt. We all know that Wall Street rarely looks further ahead than next quarter, often no further than next week. It is plain for all to see that if Obama wins, the fiscal cliff looms great. Obama is not a deal maker, he is power broker, and he will likely present Congress, particularly the House, with a package that will be a complete non-starter of tax increases with only government math spending cuts. The consensus is that if Romney wins, there is a better chance of coming to some compromise, and they fear the next two months if Obama wins. So gird your loins, it could be a bumpy ride.

I'm confused why do the fear the next two months if Obama wins?? If Romney wins we have a lame duck President with a Dem House. Seems scarier to me with that scenario.

 

[lotstodo]

Ordinarily, the stock and bond markets would have already made their election bets by now, in facts weeks before now. Not so this year. The election is so close, and the potential for disaster or redemption so great, that this year, they will wait and see. Today stocks went down 1% on the jobs report, the payroll report, and some say final bets on the Presidency. Monday will be the last day for institutional pullout, and I look for the market to drop maybe another 2% or so Monday as profit takers hedge their bets. This if there is no bad news for Romney this weekend. I've personally decided to stand pat at least into post election next week, a position I may live to regret, as I'm still about 35% invested in mostly dividend paying equities.

There is one thing that worries Wall Street more than it does me, and that is the so called "fiscal cliff". You see, much of Wall Street is supported by government spending, and their short term fear of this loss of spending is greater than their long term fear of the oppressive debt. We all know that Wall Street rarely looks further ahead than next quarter, often no further than next week. It is plain for all to see that if Obama wins, the fiscal cliff looms great. Obama is not a deal maker, he is power broker, and he will likely present Congress, particularly the House, with a package that will be a complete non-starter of tax increases with only government math spending cuts. The consensus is that if Romney wins, there is a better chance of coming to some compromise, and they fear the next two months if Obama wins. So gird your loins, it could be a bumpy ride.

I'm confused why do the fear the next two months if Obama wins?? If Romney wins we have a lame duck President with a Dem House. Seems scarier to me with that scenario.

The deal to stave off the "fiscal cliff" has to be done, at least in concept, by the congress in the next two months. The triggers of sequester will begin on Jan 2, but will not reach full effect until some time later in the year, probably March 31 when the temporary agreement on spending expires, or perhaps in February when the Treasury is to make interest payments. The looming debt limit battle has also been pushed up to the end of the year because Obama and congress plowed through the money three months sooner than expected.

The fear is that if Obama continues his contentious ways into next year, particularly his demands for bracket income tax increases which he says are mandatory and non-negotiable, a deal will never be reached. He is completely inflexible on this point. If Congress knows that Romney will be coming on board in January, the Senate in particular will be more willing to reach a compromise that saves face for everyone, seing as Romney has said he would agree to closing loopholes to increase revenue. If you recall, a deal was nearly reached last summer that Obama personally refused to go along with, just because it didn't tax the rich through bracket increases. If there is to be four more years of Obama, it is entirely possible that the House will allow sequester to take effect, feeling that to be the lesser of two evils for the economy in the long run. Wall Street fears that sudden cut in Federal spending in the short term, and will react. They are more comfortable that a Republican House and President Romney will be able to come to terms with what most feel will be a barely Democratic Senate.

 

[Grey Colson]

Mrs. Colson decided to move her $$$ at work from stock to savings on Monday. I'm going to hold out.....one of us will eating crow :Ninja

 

[Winchester]

If Obummer wins, I'm filing for my federal checks as my profession will be done for. The housing market will never recover as he continues to move massive amounts of foreclosures into the rental market for a minimum of 3 to 5 years.

 

[mei lan]

If Obummer wins, I'm filing for my federal checks as my profession this country as we know it will be done for.

FIFY.