Polls and Maps and Dynamics, oh my!!

Guard Dad

Guard Dad

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The numbers have tightened a bit in the race for the White House, but most legitimate polls still show Hillary with a comfortable lead. More importantly; the electoral map shows Hillary as being way ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Social media has recently been flooded with a bunch of polls showing Trump with huge leads. But when you dig into them, you see bad methodology or weighted sampling that skews the numbers. I would assume that the Trump camp is floating those to try and keep the energy high as Trump fights to turn things around.

Though I don't think any of this is a done deal; Trump is running out of time if he is to have a chance. But we still have the debates ahead of us, and other revelations could break that and completely change things.

There are dynamics at play this time around that we don't usually see. So it will be interesting.
 
It's not over by a long shot. There are 3 scheduled debates, she can run but she can't hide for much longer. Polls are definitely a guide but have proven time and time again they're not very accurate. UK voted to exit the EU even though polls showed a resounding victory for those who voted to remain. I'm not saying Trump is ahead or that he'll even win, only that he is still in the race and has an opportunity to pull the upset.

We can only hope and pray that he succeeds.
 
The ONLY poll that will tell the truth....and the only one that counts..... will be the general elections come November. Until then, nothing else matters and are usually agenda driven!
 
I agree that it's not over, and I'm still pulling for a Hillary loss.

My main point was, don't buy into the fake polls out there. I know a many of the Trump faithful who are.
 
Guard Dad said:
I agree that it's not over, and I'm still pulling for a Hillary loss.

My main point was, don't buy into the fake polls out there. I know a many of the Trump faithful who are.
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I've never trusted polls, either way. They're like trusting accounting numbers...they usually show what you want to see.
 
J-man said:
It's not over by a long shot. There are 3 scheduled debates, she can run but she can't hide for much longer. Polls are definitely a guide but have proven time and time again they're not very accurate. UK voted to exit the EU even though polls showed a resounding victory for those who voted to remain. I'm not saying Trump is ahead or that he'll even win, only that he is still in the race and has an opportunity to pull the upset.

We can only hope and pray that he succeeds.
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She is speaking today in Cincinnati. Son said the press is everywhere.
 
Two words: Turn Out

These Rinos and a bunch of so-called conservative talking heads have invested themselves so deeply in the NeverTrump camp, they can't stand the thought of being handed their butts and being ostracized for the next 4 to 8 years. I can't believe these people place their ego before America and I've been very disappointed in them.

I can't wait to see some of these people debating in future elections and being reminded that they didn't keep their word in this race. Maybe they will receive the same treatment they have dished out this go round.

Not that it matters in the big picture, but they will from ME.
 
Turnout is one word. LOL

Turnout will likely decide it. That's one thing that the polls can't accurately predict.
 
Turnout is the hardest thing to predict. Variables such as weather on the day of the election, a flu bug, and last minute "October Surprises" can have huge consequences. However, it's not all just guesswork, and no, it isn't based on a previous election as all of the "Hillary isn't Obama" pundits would have you believe. These predictions are getting better with more in depth and targeted questions as well as computer modeling and other techniques.

How important is turnout? Those who score 7 on the Perry-Gallup Likely Voter Index are 83% likely to vote on election day, and those people favor Republicans by a 50% to 44% margin. Step down to a 6 on that scale, and those people are only 63% likely to vote, and favor Democrats, as do the 5's on the scale.

However, turnout is much less important in states that are not "up for grabs". This is where a lot of people who don't quite grasp the dual concepts of a "wasted vote" (any vote in excess of those needed to win by the winning candidate, as well as every vote cast for a loser) and the electoral college fail miserably in their predictions. It is these two reasons why 4 candidates have won the Presidency without winning the popular vote, and why the spread in electoral votes is commonly far larger than the popular vote. Candidates win decidedly partisan states by wide margins, and thus "waste" a large number of popular votes. Furthermore, they would win those states regardless of turnout (within reason of course). It is the states where the margin is slim that turnout is the most important, and as we see above, that is particularly true for the Republicans.

So what about Trump. One proven way for a candidate to improve turnout is to have an effective local media campaign as well as a strong local boots on the ground organization and offices in battleground states. So far, trump has neither with less than three months until election day. Trump has 88 battleground state offices compared to Hillary's 291, and he is spending a meager $3.1 million on media in those states, and has pledged to spend only $10 million more. Hillary and her PACs have, by some estimates, dedicated $500 million in media buys to the handful of states in question, and is still sitting on a nest egg of nearly equal value.

So pay no attention to the man behind the curtain if you don't want to, but just know that the predictions of a Hillary landslide in the electoral college are based on a whole lot more than guesswork and Obama elections. As for those all important swing states? Hillary might not even need them. Sabato has her at 273 electoral votes with just the "safe Democrat" and "likely Democrat" states. She needs not one "leans Democrat" state to win. Of course that exact outcome is a bit unlikely, but it points out the deep hole that Trump finds himself in.
 
Oh yes, the October Surprise. I heard a bad and nasty rumor that dear ole Uncle Joe (Biden) is still waiting in the shadows with a possibility of stepping in to replace Hilderbeast just before the election so he can avoid the debates with Trump.
 
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