Bear, correction, or dip? Was today just the dead cat bounce or is the scare over?

lotstodo

lotstodo

aka "The Jackal"
Man, I don't know. My gut tells me that today was some bargain hunting by bots after yesterday's rout, but you never know. I am ready for a correction since cash got attractive about six months ago. I'd like to jump back in soon though. Right now I'm pretty much in ultra short bonds, bank notes, cash, dividend queens, and some commercial and multi-family mortgage stuff. It's relatively safe, but not the kind of thing that feeds the beast.

If you look at this market, it has been in fits and starts since February. The biggest indicator to me that we maybe haven't seen it all yet is that it is a very broad downturn, with 2/3 of the S&P in correction territory yesterday. The broader market is however bolstered by a few wunderkind like Amazon and Netflix which hide the real depth of the plunge. They will likely need to catch up before the market can really turn to recovery. I was going to buy last night, but held off at the last minute. I guess we will see if I'm being too cautious, or if I was correct to not try to catch a falling knife.
 
I bought a few things a couple of weeks ago when the bigger downturn happened. Still heavy into cash (not under the mattress), which I moved a few months ago when the market was riding high. I figure this is just a bumpy time with a few things going. Figure it will bump up once the holiday shopping season starts. I've got a good bit in most of of the FANG gang, just not Facebook.

Will most likely jump out of some of the more turbulent funds after the holidays. I've noticed that things generally pick up until after the new year starts.
 
Paxilpapa said:
Yep,,, same here,,, cash is king because it'll buy you a lottery ticket most anywhere!!!!
Click to expand...

I won $12 yesterday between Fantasy 5 and Powerball. :dancing:

And it only cost me $24 to do it. :(

I'll keep burning the winnings on more tickets until I lose it all and then give up until it hits $1 billion again.
 
Markets are not doing as they traditionally do...
Proceed at your own risk... :(

My thoughts:
*We are overdue for a correction... however this Trump economy has changed some of the rules. Note that a handful of tech stocks are propping up the market.
*It is possible TPTB (market makers) are pushing the market down, in anticipation of a RED WAVE... then they will push the market up (after buying it of course)... and make a bundle. (I prefer to not play those games).
*There are some solid companies out there, with good dividends and growth potential... however their prices are following the market gyrations too much for my taste.

I am mostly in cash now... and am gonna re-evaluate the market after the election.
 
I’m bleeding red right now other than my two long term holds. I’m fighting the urge to add to my other positions to price average down. My gut is telling me not to do it though so I just log off and avoid the temptation. I’m plan to transition towards cash as good exit points present themselves. I’m normally positive on the market but I just have a bad feeling a downturn is coming.
 
I lost a good bit the last few days, but over the long term, things will be just fine. I learned long ago to buy and hold things you see and use every day. Think oil, salt, electricity, food, pharmaceuticals, financials. We use these each day.

Some folks are rolling the dice and betting on Cannibas stocks. I don't think like that. I tend to look at companies with a track record of paying good dividends over many years.

Not if, but when the markets turn down, folks will panic and lose plenty of money, but be patient and you'll be able to buy stocks at an amazing bargain and you will come out way ahead. Volatility makes some folks nervous, but stick with the "dividend aristocrats" approach and over time, you'll do just fine.
 
The 'pot' stock boom is about over... the time to get on that wagon was about a year ago... give/take.

Here is one I owned for about a year and a half... let it go a month or so ago:
Century Link... CTL
Company is #2 behind AT&T as the largest data pipeline in the world... and they pay a HUGE % dividend.
Rode them up a bunch... then let them go.

At this point... the stocks I am looking at... probably will not 'bounce' with a RED WAVE election... so I am looking at well managed, stable growth, dividends, and the ability to weather a soft burp in the economy.
 
The market is inflated and there will be downward corrections. In fact much larger down turns than anything recent. Stocks are a long term investment unless you do it for a living. Speculation based on daily performance will get you no where and probably on the losing end. The downward turn recently is not significant enough to warrant a buy frenzy. It is still very much a sellers market. JMO.
 
JawJa said:
The 'pot' stock boom is about over... the time to get on that wagon was about a year ago... give/take..
Click to expand...
The poor fella who bought TLRY at $300 last month is probably questioning his life’s purpose today. I did get a few shares of a cheap cannibas stock for purely speculative purposes.
 
Gotta be careful of pump/dump stocks...
One can get 'whiplashed' (chasing a stock is like trying to catch a falling knife... :( )

Tidbit I learned: more $$$ is made giving advise about the markets... than applying that same advise to the markets...
Go figure... :)
 
Looking like yesterday was a dead cat bounce, people jumping back in too early. Down 400 again now. Looks like a lot of profit/loss taking place now, some people getting ready for year end and tax season.

Most of my investments are in my 401K and IRA and are in mutual funds anyway, so I'll let the experts do the buying and selling.

I have a bunch of cash in the 401K sitting on the side, I may try to slide some of it in if the downward slope continues. I've learned that waiting until you are *sure* the market has bottomed out means you miss a hefty percentage of the upward turn before you jump in.
 
Just FYI...

These numbers (roughly) were the start of 2018:
Dow: 24,809
S&P: 2683
NASDAC: 6973

I think, IF we have a red wave (which I think we will)...
The market will spring back... for a while.
OTOH...
*If the house goes to the DEMS, all bets are off...
AND
*The spring back may not last long...

Regardless... I am gonna stay on the sidelines this time...
Even though I may kick myself in a few weeks for doing that.

When one gets up in years... one does not like to loose $$$... grin!
 
When the economy starts to turn down, safe bets tend to be liquor distributors like Diageo (Ticker: DEO), or utilities such as Duke (DUK or pharmaceuticals such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

Folks use these in both good times and hard times. After the elections, Wall Street will be able to better detect which direction the markets are headed. Be patient, good news is on the horizon.
 
Watching today and after being down about 3% at 11am, the S&P is down only 1.5% at 12:30pm. It still looks like bots driving the noise level up. The close will likely be down on all three major markets because Amazon missed and also lowered their q4 projections.

I'm basically out right now, so I'm looking to buy. I think Monday will be the tale of the tape. I'm going to wait, partly because of the noise and partly because I try not to make big moves on a Friday anyway. @J-man , I feel ya. I'll be doing a lot of research this weekend.
 
I looked at the S&P a few times today and it looks like the bots have been taken out of the equation by increasing buy/sell limits on their activities by their owners. This happens sometimes on the Monday following a tumultuous week. No major shifts, and the trend is slightly down. If something triggers a big swing then the bots will screw everything, but as of this writing all is relatively calm.

It could be the bottom of last week's correction, or it could be waiting for more quarterly reports and the consumer confidence and the manufacturing index later this week. It could also be waiting for the Fed to indicate if they are or are not moderating their normalization for early 2019. Today's reports included core inflation which was up 0.2% for the month, and consumer spending and personal income. Income missed very slightly going up only 0.2% against a 0.4% expectation, but spending made the mark of up 0.2%. I think the fundamentals so far today support the end or near end of a normal correction, so I didn't jump back in completely, but I got my toe wet. I'm still slightly underweight on equities. I guess we will see.
 
Looks like we have some automated activity kicking in after the S&P lost support at 2675 around 1:45 this afternoon. It regained support at Friday's closing of 2656 and seems to be holding close to that number for now. With an hour and a half to go it could still lose support here and turn significantly negative. With the Monday following a bad week often being the day that longer term market bets are made, it so far looks like this one still can't decide. That isn't necessarily a bad thing. That "wall of worry" that is the VIX can provide some good buying opportunities as the market swings can strand some good deals in their wake.
 
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